Doc’s Political Parlor:

Let’s take a quick look at some of today’s races…

AL-02

Republican

This has been the most competitive and expensive race of the primary cycle with four of the Republican candidates spending several hundred thousand dollars, each digging in their own pocket for a large percentage of their overall budget. While this race has had its share of twists and turns, it looks like the primary is ending where it began – with Harri Anne Smith and Jay Love as the favorites. Despite game efforts by David Woods and Craig Schmitdke, it’d be a huge upset if either displaced one of the top two to make the runoff.

Depending on which poll ones looks at, either Smith or Love has the lead. It’ll be interesting to see which candidate comes up on top, but unless there is a lead of high single digits or more, a runoff would begin on a pretty even footing.

Prediction – Smith and Love finish well ahead of the pack but within less than four points of each other, with Schmidtke usurping third place from David Woods.

Democratic

This one won’t be close. It’s hard to imagine Bright being seriously pushed to secure the nomination, but only a fraction of one of the district’s counties has actually ever seen him on the ballot. And opponent Cheryl Sabel is the only Democrat to run television ads, while Bright strategically sitting on his money. I’d peg 60%-65% as the expected Bright range, with anything below that showing considerable weakness that won’t help the mayor begin the general on the right foot.

Prediction – Bright wins by about 2 to 1 over his two lower profile opponents.

AL-05

Republican

Though this has race attracted its share of Republicans, only two candidates have run top-flight, professional campaigns saturating the district with TV ads. Wayne Parker was the establishment favorite all along with Cheryl Baswell Guthrie playing the role of the self-funding insurgent. Guthrie’s fourth quarter ads hitting Parker for his lobbyist background have shaken up the race as local Repbulican figures have condemned Guthrie’s negativity. Doc Mancuso has injected his campaign with over $100K from his own pocket, which should separate him from the also-rans. But it’s hard to imagine any result other than Parker finishing first with Guthrie in second with everyone else in the dust. Which leaves the question: will Wayne Parker secure a majority today or will he be faced with a six week runoff that could grow increasingly negative?

Prediction – Guthrie’s negative ads might not ultimately help her bid for the nomination, but it will be enough to keep Parker under 50% and ensure a runoff.

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  1. Pretty good predictions! You missed the spread between Love and Smith, but were spot on in the rest of it.




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